Retirement Readiness

Retirement Planning Calculator

Retirement planner

Long-term retirement projection and risk simulation

Profile and balances

NSSF contributions, Tier I and II

Employer matches contribution
Tier I / mo
KSh 1,080
Tier II / mo
KSh 10,920
Total / yr
KSh 144,000
Contract Tier II out to a private fund

Pension returns

Brokerage returns

Other income is taxed

Retirement withdrawals

Pension withdrawals are tax-exempt

Finance Act 2025: retirement age, 20+ years NSSF, or ill-health.

Enter inputs and run the projection to see results.

Key assumptions

  • NSSF inflow is derived from salary and the Tier I and II limits (NSSF Act 2013), capped, not freely chosen
  • Discretionary saving tops up the brokerage sleeve; NSSF is the bounded floor
  • Tier II can be contracted out to a private fund (same tax treatment, different return and volatility)
  • NSSF deductions are pre-tax (they reduce taxable income before PAYE)
  • Monte Carlo runs Tier I, Tier II and brokerage as independent return streams, each with its own mean and volatility
  • Simplified tax treatment
  • Expenses grow with inflation
  • Pension withdrawals are tax-free if a Finance Act 2025 condition is met (retirement age, 20 years of NSSF membership, or ill-health), otherwise taxed at PAYE rates
  • Withdrawals follow the chosen order (auto drains the tax-free account first); only what expenses require is withdrawn, and leftovers pass on as a bequest
  • Brokerage returns are entered net of dividend withholding tax; the taxable portion is a blended estimate of how much of a withdrawal is gains rather than principal

Notes

Voluntary or informal contributors

Turn off employer match and set the salary to the pensionable base you choose.

NSSF volatility

Keep it low. The NSSF-managed pension behaves like a quasi-bond fund in the simulation.

Brokerage returns

NSE-listed stocks pay no capital gains tax. Take the 5% resident dividend withholding tax off the return instead of taxing withdrawals: a 4% dividend yield costs about 0.2% a year, so enter 9.8% rather than 10%.

Contracting Tier II out

A returns and volatility decision only. The tax treatment is the same either way.

Monte Carlo success rate

80% or higher is the usual planning benchmark. 60 to 79% is acceptable if you will carry more risk for a lower monthly contribution.

Disclaimer

Backtests, walk-forward models, and projections shown here are experimental mathematical tools applied to historical public disclosures, for quantitative research and educational purposes only.

Read the full disclaimer.

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Take it further

Retirement is one part of the plan

Carry these figures into the full planner, where retirement sits beside net worth, goals, tax and insurance on one set of assumptions.

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